Reprinted from the Health District's quarterly publication mailed to district residents (Winter 2000)

If there's anything more difficult than predicting the future, it's trying to insure yourself for it. 

Deciding whether or not to purchase long-term care insurance, which covers personal care services at home or in a nursing home, requires taking a best guess of what life will be like 20, 30 or more years down the road. 

Will you need care in your late years and how much? How far off is that need? Will you outlast your savings? 

"And it doesn't cover people who aren't getting better."

Pierce suggests that people consider long-term care insurance when finalizing retirement plans. 

"It's a very individualized decision," says Enid Kassner, senior policy advisor for the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP). "To begin with, you have to take into account your entire financial circumstances and your expected life span.

"Then you have to weigh the pros of the investment and figure out if it is worth it." 
AARP recommends long-term care insurance to those who won't be jeopardizing their financial security to purchase it, Kassner says. 

Among the pros of the insurance are preserving assets for heirs and having control over your healthcare.

"It's a very personal matter," says James Ogg, who is a certified, volunteer long-term care insurance counselor through Poudre Valley Hospital's Aspen Club. "Since I'm by myself and don't want to be a burden to my children, it's an investment I made."

It's an investment most who seek counseling through the Aspen Club would like to make.

"It often comes down to whether it makes sense for them financially," Ogg says. "If they're living on a fixed Social Security income, the premiums shouldn't be more than five to seven percent of their income."

Those who wait to purchase long-term care insurance may find themselves priced out of the market. 

"We encourage clients to apply for long-term care insurance no later than age 50 before any health problems arise, which could possibly exclude them from eligibility for coverage," says Rachel Lane, a certified financial planner in Loveland. "Also it's much less expensive at a younger age."

A person buying a policy at 65 can expect to pay about an $1,500 annual premium, according to the Division of Insurance's Pierce. At 70, one could expect to pay about $2,250 per year. 

"It averages out to be about a 50 percent increase every five years," Pierce says. "It's definitely a decision that should be made as soon as possible."

Those prices are for policies that allow access to a pool of benefits. A person will have a set amount of money and it is their decision as to whether they will spend it on home or health care. Medicaid kicks in for those with low incomes only when a person has $2,000 in assets remaining. 

Nationally, nursing home care costs an average of $56,000 a year. In Fort Collins, nursing homes average about $120 a day. And that's now. 

Lane suggest inflation protection to clients buying long-term care insurance.

"It's key when you're working this far out," she says. 

Besides personal and economic variables, there are many unknowns in the area of long-term care insurance itself. 

"These products have really only been around for about 20 years," Pierce says. "So we haven't even been through a full cycle with them." 

Add in potential medical advances and the number of unknowns is almost overwhelming.

"That's the thing about the future," Kassner says. "The farther out you're trying to predict, the more difficult it is."